Zardari faults on promises, terrorism crisis brews on

Author: Tejinder Singh, tsingh@neurope.eu
3 December 2008 - Issue : 810


Will relations between India and Pakistan deteriorate again in the wake of Mumbai mayhem, just like when Pak militants attacked Indian Parliament in December 2001? President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan holds the key to the question but he must remember: "Half measures avail us nothing," a warning from a Western diplomat in Brussels on condition of anonymity.
If the first interview of President Zardari on CNN Larry King Live on December 2 is an indicator, then the Pakistani politician fell flat on his face as he even denied that the person arrested was a Pakistani, saying, "I very much doubt, Larry, that he's a Pakistani."

On the other hand, world Vox Populi is demanding accountability with people of India seething with anger on "live" TV while the Westerners are too shocked to react yet. Like many countries around the globe, this is an election year in India and the present incumbent Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government can not afford to ignore public mood beyond a point, said a political commentator adding, "Restraint has a limit. That too in the face of mounting evidence of Lashkar-e- Taiba and al Qaeda in the attack on the country's iconic hotel, 105–year-old Taj in Mumbai."

"The siege of Taj, the adjoining Oberoi Trident hotel and Nariman House (a Jewish centre) lasted 48 hours. Live TV coverage delivered the threat of urban terrorism globally especially to every Indian home in real time," another Western political analyst told Tejinder Singh in Brussels on condition of anonymity.

President Zardari had earlier told Karan Thapar in the Devil's Advocate programme on CNN-IBN (Nov 29): "Let me assure you ... if any evidence points to any individual or group in my part of the country, I shall take the strictest of action in the light of the evidence and in front of the world."

Even as he was giving the interview "live," the TV channels were beaming the confessions of Lashkar terrorist Amjad Amir Kamaal, the lone survivor of the 10-man Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) fidayeen (suicide) squad which sieged Mumbai. Every media outlet in the world has by now carried his "song."

EVIDENCE SCREAMS

A class four drop out, Amjad Amir Kamaal hails from a small village of Faridkot in the Okara district of Pakistan's Punjab province. Top Lashkar commander Zakir-ur-Rehman allegedly promised to pay his family more than 2,500 Euro for participating in the fidayeen attack.

The sources familiar with the investigation point to the evidence: "There are the records of phone calls made by the fidayeen from a satellite phone, which was recovered after the attacks. These calls were made to LeT operations chief, who is known by code-names Muzammil, Yusuf and Abu Hurrera. Also to Zaki-ur-Rahman, whom the gang addressed as Chachu (Uncle), amongst others. There were at least three calls to 'Amir,' who frantically instructed the militants to take a hostage (at Nariman House) to 'make a point'."

Yusuf talked to his killer squad even during the bloodbath. The Sunday Express, Mumbai, reported (Nov 30) that each conversation lasted two to three minutes and the terrorists were given instructions in "Punjabi Hindi" with heavy use of military terminology. "Use cover fire," "use single burst fire," and "use your rounds sparingly" are some of Yusuf's instructions, for instance.

The sources divulged, "an intercept shows, on Nov 27 morning, when the Taj fight was on, his direction was: "Hotel mein aag laga do. Jab public bhaage gi, tum escape kar lena (burn the hotel down and in the pandemonium, you can escape)."

Calling it another give away proof, the reliable sources within the intelligence point to the GPS device that the Jehadis had used to navigate their way to Mumbai from Karachi's Azizabad is another give away, if President Zardari wants any more tell-tale proof.

There are also several other items, to wet his curiosity, like Namaz cap from a shop with the phone code of Multan, packet of wheat flour from a Karachi shop, an empty diesel can of a petrol filling station with a Karachi address, Made in Pakistan dental gel, medicam, Touchme shaving cream and Nestle milk packet, and Toilet paper packet of Zik brothers, Karachi.

PAKISTANI EXPERT TALKS

Ahmad Rashid, one of Pakistan's sane voices, and an authority on al-Qaeda and Jihad, sees a pattern between the attack on Indian Parliament and Mumbai icons. In an interview to the Forbes Network 18, he said: "I think the attacks were strategically planned by al-Qaeda through LeT militants they train. It is trying to work out space for itself in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, FATA. If tensions between India and Pakistan escalate, the (Pak) army will be moved to the Indian borders, as happened in 2002. This will buy a few months to al-Qaeda before the new US administration sends 20,000 more troops to Afghanistan."

This "relocation" plan is in the works, Geo News, a private Pak TV reported Nov 29 quoting a briefing of Pakistan's military and intelligence sources to a select group of journalists.

Geo News also reported (Nov 29) the military establishment decided not to send the ISI chief Lt Gen Shuja Pasha to India. Only a day earlier President Zardari and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani promised to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that Pasha would visit Delhi as requested by him. Gilani's Press Secretary Zahid Bashir told a news agency: "Initially, Indian Prime Minister made a request to our PM that he should send the ISI chief to help in investigations and further intelligence sharing. The PM of Pakistan responded positively."

Nirupama Subramanian in The Hindu (Nov 30) also attributed the "roll back" to the army. "That there could be a change in the government's decision was evident when the military spokesman distanced the army from the announcement by the Prime Minister's office that ISI chief would go to India," she said in her despatch from Islamabad. The "new" decision was taken at 1.30 am on Saturday Nov 29 at a meeting of the troika – President, PM and army chief, Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, according to The Nation of Lahore.

"Our hands are clean," Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi told a press conference in Islamabad on Nov 29 evening. "We have nothing to hide, we have nothing to be abashed of," he went on to say, and, like President Zardari, asked India to "come up with evidence to take strictest action."

TIME FOR ACTION

Now that there is clinching evidence with India, and American intelligence, and counter-intelligence officials, as reported by the New York Times, are "convinced of the mounting evidence" of LeT responsibility for the brutal attack on Mumbai, Pakistan must come out of denial mode.

President Zardari must end talking his way out of trouble. And deliver on his promise. Not for avoiding trouble on the borders with India but to assert his authority as the head of the state, and to rein in his country's intelligence agency, ISI, which has been allowed to "go out- of –control" by his predecessors as a matter of deliberate state policy and as an insurance against American pressures.

Even Zardari could not deny it on the CNN Larry King Live show. On the question of the support of the Pakistani intelligence apparatus for militant movements, President said: "In the past, lots of mistakes have been made, I cannot deny that. But the present government does not support any such action."

A historic opportunity for not only Zardari, but also for Pakistan, to undo the past and to undo the designs of Islamists at home and thus abroad tarnishing the image and reputation of Pakistan on the global canvass. Instead Zardari is singing the old favourite song of Pakistani military asking for evidence, then denying it and the show goes on but the question is till when?

EU’s Blue Card visa scheme gets green light

The European Union Council of Ministers of Justice and Home Affairs slated to meet on November 27-28 in Bru ssels is expected to rubber stamp the Blue Card, a fast-track work visa, a decision made at the ambassadors’ level. “As the decision was agreed at the ambassadors’ level, it’s not yet official but we do not foresee any further debates and the decision will be ratified by the EU ministers next month,” an EU official said. France holds the rotating EU Presidency for the second half of 2008 till the end of December. In addition, the EU leaders en dorsed an EU immigration package and put on hold the restart of frozen trade and partnership talks with Russia.

With major countries like Germany and United Kingdom pushing for competition to get the best talents, the EU states significantly weakened the Commission’s original plans by insisting that it is up to national governments to decide how many migrants should enter their countries and what qualifications they should have. With a fast track application process along with making it easier for workers to bring families along and get housing the Blue Card, with validity of four years falls way short of original proposal.

Moreover, the Blue Card would only be issued under strict income conditions, with migrants expected to be earning at least one- and-ahalf times the gross national average wage. The Blue Card, a brain child of European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, was designed to be on par with Green Card system of the USA, the final version has lost much of its shine according to EU sources in Brussels.

Barroso had told journalists on September 29 in Marseille, France after the EU-India Summit: “We have made a proposal precisely to make it easier for qualified professionals to come to Europe because we want to remain open and in fact we want more people coming to Europe namely some migrants, qualified migrants and sometimes we find it’s difficult for them to come so we made a proposal and that proposal is being negotiated by the Council of member states and I think the final outcome will be a good one.”

Addressing a joint press conference with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and current EU Presidency holder French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Barroso had said, “I think it will a good outcome, a balanced proposals especially for the Indians to come to Europe and cooperate inside our member states.”

Asked to comment on the diluting of his proposals, Barroso told journalists, “of course sometimes we want more ambitious results but this is the way we work in the EU we have to understand we are 27 countries so at the end it has to be a compromise between all the countries because thats very much linked to their national sovereignty.”

Commenting on the upcoming proposals, Umesh Shenoy, an Indian software consultant working in Brussels, Belgium said, “Blue Card will greatly alleviate the problem of restrictive movement for non- EU employees within the EU countries. Hopefully will bring stability to otherwise chaotic procedure that comes with applying for work permit and residence cards. This will be useful for Multinational institutions which require workforce to be mobile and It is a win-win situation for both employer and employees alike in the longer term.”

Indian diplomatic presence in Brussels needs boost

The European Union and India at the recently concluded EU-India Summit (September 29) in Marseille, France failed to finalise the ongoing trade negotiations over Free Trade Agreement (FTA), the two sides remaining at loggerheads on key issues in the Doha talks on liberalising world trade. Political ties can not go far without financial bonds and a look at the trade figures from recent past show that its time to inject much needed momentum into an uninspiring trade relationship.

Reiterating the importance of trade and economic ties, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told journalists at a joint press conference with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso: “We have agreed to achieve an annual bilateral trade turnover of 100 billion Euro within the next five years and to work towards the conclusion of the India- EU Broad- Based Trade and Investment Agreement by end-2009.” The 27-nation bloc’s trade with India amounted to just less than 56 billion Euro last year. Earlier, the trade statistics showed a jump from a meagre less than five billion Euro in 1980 to a respectable more than 45 billion Euro in 2006. Although trade with the EU is 20 percent of India’s import-export business, making the EU India’s largest trading partner in 2006, India’s share is only 1.8 percent of total EU trade. In the context of the ongoing negotiations in the EU-India Free Trade Agreement, there are some stumbling blocks that need to be addressed on both sides. According to reliable sources, the major hurdle is in the fields of agriculture which is a protected sector in the EU which earmarks 40 percent of its total budget to this sector where there are subsidies galore.

NO TIME TABLE

In May, Peter Power, spokesperson for EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson had told journalists in Brussels: “I can confirm that we have received the document from India. I can confirm that it is certainly a useful and worthwhile opening bid for negotiations will have to go further and deeper,” lamenting that the time-frame for the talks to conclude is “not solely in our hands.” “We would like to see this particular negotiation making progress as rapidly as possible. I think the opening bid is not bad, but a lot of work remains to be done to have an agreement that would be worthy of support by both sides,” he noted.

“I think at this stage it would be unwise of me to put a timetable, but certainly we should hope to see substantial movement in the next year to 18 months,” added Power. India formally launched negotiations in June 2007 with the EU for a comprehensive FTA aimed at removing barriers across all sectors including investment and services.

The EU has, in recent times, accepted the fact that Indian import tariffs have been substantially reduced but it complains they are still high by international standards. The EU calls it a “complex and non-transparent” system as it points at additional duties, taxes, and charges that are levied on top of the basic customs duties. Pointing to the “non-tariff” barriers, the EU lists quantitative restrictions, mandatory testing, import licensing, certification for a large number of products and a complicated procedural modus operandi as the major speed breakers for a smooth trade relationship.

SLUGGISH INDIAN MISSION

With Indians finding the EU institutions bewildering and complex, India has its own set of complaints, foremost being in recent times the frequent use of anti-dumping duties on its exports including footwear. This is the arena where the diplomatic mission in Brussels is failing Delhi in the Indian government’s renewed efforts to shift into higher gears cooperation in different fields with the European Union. India’s outgoing ambassador to the European Union, Dipak Chatterjee, last month was cited by EuAsiaNews as saying, “I don’t think India has fully woken up to the fact that the EU is more than an economic and trading partner. The EU is trying to build a political identity for itself. I think it will take some time for India to come to understand that.” “But India is realising that the EU is a force to reckon with. There is interest on both sides to develop relations,” he had added. 

All the European journalists attending the Marseille Summit agreed that there was a complete lack of information from the Indian mission in Brussels where the EU is seated.

European journalists pointed to “no press release,” “no media briefing,” “no pertinent information on the Embassy website,” nor a “call back to provide information from the Indian Ambassador’s office in Brussels.”

Add to the fact that with more than a month of arrival in Brussels, the new ambassador is yet to let the Brussels press corps know of his presence through either a press release or otherwise. According to political pundits here, its time for Delhi to rethink the Brussels diplomatic strategy to pump in a new impetus into EU-India relationship.

Missed opportunities at the EU India Summit

September 29, the sunny environs of Marseille in Southern France were the perfect setting to provide a strong impetus to the lackluster Europe-India relations but half a day of talks were overshadowed by French focus on Franco-Indian bilateral Summit the next day. The latter did culminate in France with India signing a nuclear co-operation deal.

Rising from the ashes of two World Wars and expanding to include 27 Member States with more in the waiting, the EU today is a bastion of peace, harmony and prosperity. On the other hand, India, with 28 States and seven Union Territories, has emerged over last six decades in a buoyant mood thanks to its democratic principles, freedom of speech and its new found economic strengths.

Fresh from the historic nuclear deal with the US, India is in a bargaining mood while the EU is still far from making the necessary efforts needed to shift its continuing bridge building with China to India as an important global and regional democratic player.

Political ties can not go far without financial bonds and a look at the trade figures from recent past show that its time to inject much needed momentum into an uninspiring trade relationship. At the Marseille Summit, the EU and India were unable to conclude a trade accord by the end of this year, as once hoped, and remain at loggerheads on key issues in the Doha talks on liberalising world trade.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told journalists, at the joint press conference with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, "We have agreed to achieve an annual bilateral trade turnover of 100 billion Euro within the next five years and to work towards the conclusion of the India-EU Broad-Based Trade and Investment Agreement by end-2009."

The 27 nation bloc’s trade with India amounted to just less than 56 billion Euro last year. Earlier the trade statistics shifted a gear from a meagre less than five billion Euro in 1980 to a respectable more than 45 billion Euro in 2006. Although trade with the EU is 20 percent of India’s import-export business, making the EU India’s largest trading partner in 2006, India’s share is only 1.8 percent of total EU trade.

In the context of the ongoing negotiations in the EU-India Free Trade Agreement, there are some stumbling blocks that need to be addressed on both sides. According to reliable sources, the major hurdle is in the fields of agriculture which is a protected sector in the EU which earmarks 40 percent of its total budget to this sector where there are subsidies galore.

COMMISSION HOPES

In May, Peter Power, spokesperson for EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson had told journalists in Brussels, “I can confirm that we have received the document from India. I can confirm that it is certainly a useful and worthwhile opening bid for negotiations will have to go further and deeper,” lamenting that the time-frame for the talks to conclude is “not solely in our hands.” “We would like to see this particular negotiation making progress as rapidly as possible. I think the opening bid is not bad, but a lot of work remains to be done to have an agreement that would be worthy of support by both sides,” he noted. “I think at this stage it would be unwise of me to put a timetable, but certainly we should hope to see substantial movement in the next year to 18 months,” added Power.

India formally launched negotiations in June 2007 with the EU for a comprehensive FTA aimed at removing barriers across all sectors including investment and services.

The EU has, in recent times, accepted the fact that Indian import tariffs have been substantially reduced but it complains they are still high by international standards. The EU calls it a “complex and non-transparent” system as it points at additional duties, taxes, and charges that are levied on top of the basic customs duties.

Pointing to the “non-tariff” barriers, the EU lists quantitative restrictions, mandatory testing, import licensing, certification for a large number of products and a complicated procedural modus operandi as the major speed breakers for a smooth trade relationship. With Indians finding the EU institutions bewildering and complex, India has its own set of complaints, foremost being in recent times the frequent use of anti-dumping duties on its exports including footwear.

CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate Change is another major sticking factor in the relationship equation, as India negates EU calls for a stricter binding commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emission, while Delhi argues that as a developing country it can not be expected to slow down its pace of industrialisation.

The EU has allotted 470 million Euro between 2007-2013 to tackle cooperation in the energy sector and environmental concerns while making efforts to reach its Millennium Development Goals.

Indian Premier Singh, noting that the EU-India summit had produced agreement on co-operation in clean coal technologies and solar energy, told journalists: “I am extremely satisfied . . . The holding of annual summits reflects the great importance both sides place on this strategic ­relationship.”

NUCLEAR INITIATIVE

The best bet of all was the EU-Indian nuclear initiative taking shape as the US House of Representatives and the US Senate cleared the way for India to buy nuclear power plants, technology and fuel in the US.

India, officially a nuclear weapons power since 1998, has been denied access to civilian nuclear technology for more than 30 years because of its test of a nuclear device in 1974 and its refusal to sign the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Like the US administration, the EU views now India, as a friendly democracy sharing many common values and argues Delhi should not be ostracised but encouraged to develop civilian nuclear energy and to assume its responsibilities as one of the world’s nuclear powers. “France has confidence in India,” Sarkozy said.

France, current holder of the EU presidency, is the member state with the most extensive experience of civilian nuclear power. It is keen to exploit the commercial opportunities presented by India’s need for new sources of energy to fuel its rapid economic expansion.

OTHER SECTORS

The EU and India said they planned to boost their joint work in the international thermonuclear experimental reactor (ITER) project, a French-based scheme to test environment-friendly, electricity-producing fusion power plants. They also said they would sign a separate agreement between Delhi and Euratom, the EU’s atomic energy agency, on fusion energy research.

On the question of EU aspirations to issue work permits to skilled professionals, the Commission President Barroso told journalists that the EU is aware of the difficulties faced by skilled professionals from India and other non-EU countries to come to the continent and was working on the “Blue Card” initiative on the lines of the more famous “Green Card” system of the US.

With the EU-India Free Trade Agreement in the pipeline along with other fields of cooperation being explored, both India and the EU are ready for taking a qualitative leap forward in relations, but the political leaderships on both sides have to transform all the talk of shared values of democracy, diversity and multilateralism into concrete pragmatic actions, thus making an effective and cohesive EU-India Strategic Partnership out of the present patchwork of sectoral cooperation.

Last but not the least, there was a complete lack of information from the Indian mission in Brussels where the EU is seated. European journalists pointed to “no press release,” “no media briefing,” “no pertinent information on the Embassy website,” nor a “call back to provide information from the Indian Ambassador’s office in Brussels.”

(Published in www.neurope.eu)