Zardari faults on promises, terrorism crisis brews on

Author: Tejinder Singh, tsingh@neurope.eu
3 December 2008 - Issue : 810


Will relations between India and Pakistan deteriorate again in the wake of Mumbai mayhem, just like when Pak militants attacked Indian Parliament in December 2001? President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan holds the key to the question but he must remember: "Half measures avail us nothing," a warning from a Western diplomat in Brussels on condition of anonymity.
If the first interview of President Zardari on CNN Larry King Live on December 2 is an indicator, then the Pakistani politician fell flat on his face as he even denied that the person arrested was a Pakistani, saying, "I very much doubt, Larry, that he's a Pakistani."

On the other hand, world Vox Populi is demanding accountability with people of India seething with anger on "live" TV while the Westerners are too shocked to react yet. Like many countries around the globe, this is an election year in India and the present incumbent Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government can not afford to ignore public mood beyond a point, said a political commentator adding, "Restraint has a limit. That too in the face of mounting evidence of Lashkar-e- Taiba and al Qaeda in the attack on the country's iconic hotel, 105–year-old Taj in Mumbai."

"The siege of Taj, the adjoining Oberoi Trident hotel and Nariman House (a Jewish centre) lasted 48 hours. Live TV coverage delivered the threat of urban terrorism globally especially to every Indian home in real time," another Western political analyst told Tejinder Singh in Brussels on condition of anonymity.

President Zardari had earlier told Karan Thapar in the Devil's Advocate programme on CNN-IBN (Nov 29): "Let me assure you ... if any evidence points to any individual or group in my part of the country, I shall take the strictest of action in the light of the evidence and in front of the world."

Even as he was giving the interview "live," the TV channels were beaming the confessions of Lashkar terrorist Amjad Amir Kamaal, the lone survivor of the 10-man Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) fidayeen (suicide) squad which sieged Mumbai. Every media outlet in the world has by now carried his "song."

EVIDENCE SCREAMS

A class four drop out, Amjad Amir Kamaal hails from a small village of Faridkot in the Okara district of Pakistan's Punjab province. Top Lashkar commander Zakir-ur-Rehman allegedly promised to pay his family more than 2,500 Euro for participating in the fidayeen attack.

The sources familiar with the investigation point to the evidence: "There are the records of phone calls made by the fidayeen from a satellite phone, which was recovered after the attacks. These calls were made to LeT operations chief, who is known by code-names Muzammil, Yusuf and Abu Hurrera. Also to Zaki-ur-Rahman, whom the gang addressed as Chachu (Uncle), amongst others. There were at least three calls to 'Amir,' who frantically instructed the militants to take a hostage (at Nariman House) to 'make a point'."

Yusuf talked to his killer squad even during the bloodbath. The Sunday Express, Mumbai, reported (Nov 30) that each conversation lasted two to three minutes and the terrorists were given instructions in "Punjabi Hindi" with heavy use of military terminology. "Use cover fire," "use single burst fire," and "use your rounds sparingly" are some of Yusuf's instructions, for instance.

The sources divulged, "an intercept shows, on Nov 27 morning, when the Taj fight was on, his direction was: "Hotel mein aag laga do. Jab public bhaage gi, tum escape kar lena (burn the hotel down and in the pandemonium, you can escape)."

Calling it another give away proof, the reliable sources within the intelligence point to the GPS device that the Jehadis had used to navigate their way to Mumbai from Karachi's Azizabad is another give away, if President Zardari wants any more tell-tale proof.

There are also several other items, to wet his curiosity, like Namaz cap from a shop with the phone code of Multan, packet of wheat flour from a Karachi shop, an empty diesel can of a petrol filling station with a Karachi address, Made in Pakistan dental gel, medicam, Touchme shaving cream and Nestle milk packet, and Toilet paper packet of Zik brothers, Karachi.

PAKISTANI EXPERT TALKS

Ahmad Rashid, one of Pakistan's sane voices, and an authority on al-Qaeda and Jihad, sees a pattern between the attack on Indian Parliament and Mumbai icons. In an interview to the Forbes Network 18, he said: "I think the attacks were strategically planned by al-Qaeda through LeT militants they train. It is trying to work out space for itself in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, FATA. If tensions between India and Pakistan escalate, the (Pak) army will be moved to the Indian borders, as happened in 2002. This will buy a few months to al-Qaeda before the new US administration sends 20,000 more troops to Afghanistan."

This "relocation" plan is in the works, Geo News, a private Pak TV reported Nov 29 quoting a briefing of Pakistan's military and intelligence sources to a select group of journalists.

Geo News also reported (Nov 29) the military establishment decided not to send the ISI chief Lt Gen Shuja Pasha to India. Only a day earlier President Zardari and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani promised to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that Pasha would visit Delhi as requested by him. Gilani's Press Secretary Zahid Bashir told a news agency: "Initially, Indian Prime Minister made a request to our PM that he should send the ISI chief to help in investigations and further intelligence sharing. The PM of Pakistan responded positively."

Nirupama Subramanian in The Hindu (Nov 30) also attributed the "roll back" to the army. "That there could be a change in the government's decision was evident when the military spokesman distanced the army from the announcement by the Prime Minister's office that ISI chief would go to India," she said in her despatch from Islamabad. The "new" decision was taken at 1.30 am on Saturday Nov 29 at a meeting of the troika – President, PM and army chief, Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, according to The Nation of Lahore.

"Our hands are clean," Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi told a press conference in Islamabad on Nov 29 evening. "We have nothing to hide, we have nothing to be abashed of," he went on to say, and, like President Zardari, asked India to "come up with evidence to take strictest action."

TIME FOR ACTION

Now that there is clinching evidence with India, and American intelligence, and counter-intelligence officials, as reported by the New York Times, are "convinced of the mounting evidence" of LeT responsibility for the brutal attack on Mumbai, Pakistan must come out of denial mode.

President Zardari must end talking his way out of trouble. And deliver on his promise. Not for avoiding trouble on the borders with India but to assert his authority as the head of the state, and to rein in his country's intelligence agency, ISI, which has been allowed to "go out- of –control" by his predecessors as a matter of deliberate state policy and as an insurance against American pressures.

Even Zardari could not deny it on the CNN Larry King Live show. On the question of the support of the Pakistani intelligence apparatus for militant movements, President said: "In the past, lots of mistakes have been made, I cannot deny that. But the present government does not support any such action."

A historic opportunity for not only Zardari, but also for Pakistan, to undo the past and to undo the designs of Islamists at home and thus abroad tarnishing the image and reputation of Pakistan on the global canvass. Instead Zardari is singing the old favourite song of Pakistani military asking for evidence, then denying it and the show goes on but the question is till when?

Decline of the American dollar

Fiscal policies over the years take toll on the greenback

The days when the greenback ruled with absolute supremacy and simultaneously commanded the unparalleled confidence of chiefs of international and domestic financial institutions along with the man in the street in the remotest parts of the planet are over. The American dollar is no more “The Currency” that can be relied on for value, as was evident by a recent CNN news clip showing an antique store in New York preferring Euro over the local currency.

Since World War II, when the American dollar started replacing gold as a means of transaction on the international level, the dollar has taken some hard knocks in recent years.

With the launch of the Euro nearly a decade ago, much was written in the pro-dollar media and EMU, as the Eurozone is called, and it was compared with the “EMU,” a bird that cannot fly. But then, compared to the launch and subsequent drop as the nascent currency took baby steps, the Euro has come of age and has crossed the threshold One Euro=USD 1.5 plus. And the dollar has also lost against the other leading currencies, like the Japanese Yen and British Pound.

With the way things are going, one must understand why and when the American dollar got to that place on the pedestal. Only then does it become clear what is happening now. As mentioned earlier, a walk down memory lane shows that till World War II the exchange rates of major currencies were reflected in terms of the price of gold in the respective countries, but with the manipulation of costs of other goods then, gold was a growing discomfort among trading partners across the globe, and the dollar came as a suitable solution.

World War II ended with the emergence of the United States as the dominant military and economic powerhouse, and as countries gathered to this epiccentre for military and financial support, the dollar emerged as the financial powerpoint of the financial world.

With the issuing of US government securities there was an added charm of earning interest over dollar deposits.But to the discerning eye, there was a Catch-22 situation that stayed afloat all these decades - and still is. The use and abuse of the technical term “Balance of Payments” was so rampant by the US that one shudders to look at the figures over the years. The United States consumed more than it produced, financing the payments with printed paper and all had been well till 1971 arrived.

The US devalued the “International Currency” unilaterally. Internationally-held dollar reserves overnight lost value and that was quite a hard knock for some of the poor countries of the world.Five years later, in 1976, came the Jamaican Agreement that gave the financial world a floating exchange rate system where the markets started playing a lead role.

But again, it was not a free float and, instead, government intervention in the form of buying and selling determines the final results at the end of the day.With the arrival of the Euro in the world F/X (foreign exchange) market scene, things started changing.

And let us not forget that the Euro has replaced 15 European currencies, and some of them, like the German mark, French franc and Italian lira were backed by strong economic and industrial giants of the world.

With the Euro surging not only in value but also as a dependable currency, the world commodity markets, especially relating to oil, will start contemplating a switch to the Euro to protect themselves against instability or the falling dollar.

The US administration will definitely want to sabotage such a move by hook or crook as its financial survival depends on the role of dollar as a legitimate international currency. Now, a look at what is really going on behind the scene.

US statistic reports have repeatedly shown the American C/A (current account) deficit has expanded continuously with billions in fiscal deficit.With China shifting some of its foreign reserves into Euro, there is already a warning ringing for the United States as more countries shift to Euro; more falls in the dollar will result.

Add to those factors the role played by the locomotive economies of Asia including China and India growing by leaps and bounds in the current years. But the financial mechanism needed to keep the dollar at a price that will sustain the US C/A deficit without putting pressure on its import/export ratio, which in turn enhances or erodes the lifestyle of its citizens, will not garner support internationally over a long-term period and US will have to pay the price at some point.