Kosovo’s clock is ticking

Rumblings in Europe and beyond, not violence, the threat

The European Union, the bastion of peace and prosperity rose from the ashes of two sanguinary World Wars and today it still portrays that tranquil image, notwithstanding the wars and bloodshed of the Balkans in the 1990s.

The impending Kosovo independence, a direct fallout from those Balkan wars, may not trigger an all-out war in the region, but it will definitely result in some major indelible changes not only in the region but also world afar.

Kosovo’s population is 90 percent Albanian, and their goal of independence was reiterated February 8 by Kosovo Prime Minister Hashim Thaci. “We have confirmation by around 100 countries that they are ready to recognise Kosovo’s independence immediately after we declare it. We will have a powerful and massive recognition,” he said.

Addressing journalists after the regular weekly meeting with Joachim Ruecker, chief of the UN mission in Kosovo, Thaci refused to divulge either the names of his list of countries or specify when he plans to declare independence.

In keeping with his declared intentions to keep his supporters mostly Western powers in confidence about intended declaration of independence, there is a general murmur in diplomatic circles that February 17 may be the D-day.

On the other hand, Serbia continues with its hawkish statements as the EU-backed reelected Serbian President Boris Tadic warned of an escalation in conflicts if Kosovo declares independence.

Speaking at the opening of an annual security conference in Munich, Tadic who enjoys the support of powers that are supporting Kosovo independence, said, “Should Serbia be partitioned against its will ... it could in turn result in the escalation of many existing conflicts, the reactivation of a number of frozen conflicts, and the instigation of who knows how many new conflicts.”

But his comments try to cater to the sentiments of Serbian people as well as play along the European officials, especially the EU’s enlargement commissioner, Olli Rehn who has been instrumental in offering all the carrots to Serbia thus openly helping Tadic to win again.

On January 28, before the final round of Serbian presidential elections, EU foreign ministers offered Serbia a deal on free trade and travel, presenting it as a “signal to the Serbian people,” while denying that it was intended to influence the vote.

Now, with the win of the pro-EU Tadic in Serbia, the EU is in a win-win position. First it can go ahead and give recognition to an independent Kosovo and then as Serbia accepts the carrot of EU membership, Belgrade has to regularise its relationship with an independent Kosovo.

Commenting on the victory of Tadic, Jose Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission said the result was “a victory for democracy in Serbia and for the European values we share.” He added: “Your victory comes at a critical moment for Serbia and for the western Balkans. We wish to accelerate Serbia’s progress towards the European Union.”

The European Union on one hand has been supporting pro-Western Tadic on Serbian political landscape but it has given a go-ahead on the other hand to an EU police and justice mission to Kosovo. Without specifying a launch date, the mission was approved in writing to allow the EU’s 1,800 police and legal officials to take over from the United Nations in Kosovo, under UN Security Council resolution 1244, which refers to an international security presence.

The 16,000-strong NATO force, however will remain in Kosovo, which is still a province of Serbia. Kosovo has been run by the UN since a US-led NATO bombing campaign drove out Serb forces accused of a brutal crackdown on ethnic Albanian separatists.

The imminent independence of Kosovo will fan the forces of separatism in rest of Europe and other parts of the world as it comes under the aegis of the UN mandate. In an interview with New Europe recently in Brussels, Joseba Azkarraga Rodero, Minister, Department of Justice, Employment and Social Security, Basque Country in Spain, reiterated its fallout on other simmering conflicts.

Stressing “Fighting for self determination is the right of the people,” Rodero said, “We support the rights of self-determination of Scottish and Kosovo people through peaceful and democratic means to reach such ends.”

On the other cases of such struggles, he added, “People have been fighting for their own states. Large states talk of borders and that is not correct. We can see cases of Kosovo and Scotland – similar cases where people are fighting for self determination.”

Moreover, at the Russia-NATO meeting last December, held in Brussels, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told journalists, “We are for a solution which will be acceptable to both Belgrade and Pristina and only for government bodies which will be fully empowered to ensure security.”

Asked to comment on Moscow’s response to a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo, Lavrov said, “Reaction will be based on international law and I very much hope that other members of international community will proceed on that basis too.”

Lavrov called the projected solution “as a precedent,” adding, “How the Kosovo crisis is going to evolve is being looked at by a lot of other countries in the world and not only countries in the Balkans. So it has to do with international law, Helsinki act and any body who goes against them, will certainly go on a slippery path and not help stability of Europe.”

Arguing that such a solution for Kosovo will set a dangerous precedent for separatist inspirations elsewhere like Basque, Scottish and other regions, Russia has supported Serbia’s stance at the UN Security Council to keep Kosovo within Serbia but with greater autonomy.

Last but not least, the European Union along with the US has been again supporting Kosovo independence without reacting to an earlier report in this newspaper about the rise of Wahhabism and the tightening of the grip of fundamental Islam over Kosovo’s society where the majority population is Muslim.

The rampant use of foreign money from Saudi Arabia and other countries to spread “intolerant” and “puritan” form of Wahhabism is going to allow anti-West terrorism to rear its ugly head right in the back yard of the European Union. But until there is no blast, no killings of innocent people and no public outcry, the Western leaders will behave the problem is not festering.

NATO optimistic on Afghanistan

Secretary General says Kosovo volatile, Pakistan restive

NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer on January 10 expressed optimism for the situation in Afghanistan amid criticism of allies’ apathy in the region. Welcoming a recent decision by the United States to send an extra 3,000 Marines to Afghanistan, de Hoop Scheffer called for patience and cautioned against drawing hasty conclusions on the situation in the country.

Addressing journalists at a New Year reception hosted by NATO, de Hoop Scheffer denied that allies “are not active enough” adding, “If you look at the recent past, you see a number of allies stepping up to the plate. Even yesterday, we heard that Poland has made a very substantial and considerable offer, including eight helicopters, which is a lot, and ground forces for Afghanistan.”

“Nations like Slovakia, Hungary, Georgia, France, the Czech Republic, Australia, Norway, Singapore, Azerbaijan - all of course according to their capability - ...have recently contributed or are contributing forces,” he said. “The Afghan National Army is doing better and better. Health care is up. Child mortality is down. Two-thirds of villages in Afghanistan have received development projects worth up to USD 50,000. Comparing situation in 2001 to start of 2008, lots of progress has been made, but the problem is that we, the international community has no patience. We want to see instant progress, but that is not possible. We need ‘patience.’ This is a long-term commitment,” he said.

Stressing, “The answer in Afghanistan is not military but civilian. Reconstruction and development is something for the long-haul,” the Secretary General reiterated that Afghanistan is the key in the fight against terrorism.

According to NATO figures, the number of troops in ISAF - now provided by 39 nations - rose from around 33,000 in January 2007, to almost 42,000 by December. With around 140 suicide attacks, 2007 was the bloodiest year in Afghanistan since the Taliban were ousted from power in late 2001, according to a United Nations survey.

Answering a journalist’s question, de Hoop Scheffer expressed concern over the situation in Pakistan. “That’s the situation in Pakistan, it’s very relevant for the NATO operation, the ISAF operation in Afghanistan.”

Refusing to comment on the internal situation in Pakistan, the Secretary General said, “I’ll not comment on the internal situation in Pakistan. That’s not up to me. What is important is that those people who are trying to make life in Afghanistan more complicated than it already is, are adequately dealt with in Pakistan as well.”

On the issue of Kosovo, Secretary General de Hoop Scheffer said NATO had a clear “key” role in Kosovo and “KFOR will stay and protect minorities and majorities alike.” Highlighting the presence of about “16,000” peacekeeping troops in Kosovo, the Secretary General said, “KFOR is there to stay with 1244 UN resolution... (and will stay) unless there is another resolution from United Nations.”

“The situation (in Kosovo) is volatile now ... (But) Let nobody be under the illusion that he or she could get his way by violent means,” the NATO chief said. “Although I prefer a negotiated solution, the chance seems remote now,” he added.

Asked to comment on the changes if the European Union will send its own mission to Kosovo, de Hoop Scheffer told journalists, “KFOR’s mandate as such will not change ...But the ESDP mission, as you know, when it would come, would have a police element and KFOR is not a police force in Kosovo.”

He described the need to have a close EU-NATO cooperation in Kosovo as “very important” and said all of the Western Balkans should one day be allowed to join NATO and the EU. Kosovo, a province of 2.2 million, has been under UN administration since 1999, when NATO bombs stopped Serbian ethnic cleansing in the area.

Commenting on the Western Balkans in general, the Secretary General said, “Now, we have ...the only recipe, in my opinion, which will create lasting stability and security in the Balkans is the road to Euro- Atlantic integration. And at the end of the day, and I don’t know when the end of the day will come, but my ideal would be that I see all those countries in the European Union and in NATO. That is the only recipe for stability.”

NATO leaders are due to meet in Bucharest, Romania, for a summit scheduled to take place on April 2-4. The NATO chief de Hoop Scheffer said the summit would address “future threats and challenges,” such as cyber defence and energy security, and would consider the applications of three potential new member states: Albania, Croatia and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM).

Saying, “the level of scrutiny has never been more intense,” and without committing himself on their chances to join the alliance this spring, the Secretary General urged them to continue reforms up to “the last moment.” “NATO allies will take a political decision,” he added.

Asked to comment on others (Georgia and Ukraine), de Hoop Scheffer said, “Ukraine has a distinctive partnership, Intensified Dialogue. So has Georgia, Intensified Dialogue. We should use that to the full ...I do not know what Bucharest exactly will result in as far as Ukraine and Georgia are concerned. For the moment my advice would be let’s at least use the Intensified Dialogue we have with Ukraine and with Georgia to the full. And I say again we’ll certainly, and I’ll certainly establish sooner rather than later contacts with the new Ukrainian government and with the Georgian government for that matter, after the moment there is a new Georgian government.”